I think it's hard to measure. On the surface it does seem less active, but there are still new programs being released fairly regularly. ticalc.org still has programs being released and/or updated every week, and there are some really cool programs being made.
Around the time that I joined the community in 1998-99, it was only just breaking out from the underground so to speak, and it was really going crazy. There was all the early platformers like Penguins, Sqrxz, etc. being released & then ported to all the Z80 calcs, as well as shoot-em-ups like Spaze Invaders, and then Galaxian, then Phoenix, etc. Back then we didn't have things like iPhones, so having a handheld calculator that could be so powerful was an amazing thing. Having said that, I do actually have an iPhone now, and did at one point consider trying to do some programming on it, but I never really looked that far into it as yet.
So, I don't think the community is dying. I don't know much about the newer calculators like the Nspire, although I have read a few articles about how TI are catering more to the teachers with these new models and being somewhat restrictive in regards to people wanting to do low-level programming. However, as long as students are still using the TI-83+ series & TI-89 series calculators in class, I think the TI online programming community will still be around. The thing is that technology continues to evolve, so I guess the sad day will come where the 83+ / 89 ranges are rarely used anymore, but when that day comes, there will be people at that time that will evolve with the technology and find ways to hack into whatever is released and do cool things :)